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Now again, this is not to say that as of the end of 2008 My Space would have had 1.5 Hotmail accounts for every 1 Gmail account as they'd already had 6 years of accumulating Hotmail customers and only a couple of years of Gmail customers (at least since they went out of beta).
But the patterns do start to fit much better, most notably because Gmail is far enough out of beta to have tens of millions of people use it on My Space but not far enough along it's growth curve to come anywhere near the Hotmail and especially the Yahoo numbers.
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What I really needed though was evidence of people who created accounts around this time frame, so I asked for some help yesterday: (Many people actually kept the original welcome email from My Space which proved enormously useful in this exercise.) All of this was pointing to the gut feel I had about the incident not occurring earlier than a 2008 time frame.
For example, this Business Insider chart: Keep in mind that this is a US chart (although arguably My Space was US-centric), and even if Gmail was at parity with Yahoo back then we'd still expect more Yahoo accounts as the incumbent mail provider; people were creating My Space accounts before Gmail existed.
Here we have the world's largest provider of email addresses and it has only a fifth the prevalence of Yahoo addresses.
Think of the email account distribution like this: But what we need to remember with Gmail is that they're a relatively new player.
The data is now searchable in Have I been pwned (yes, all 359,420,698 unique email addresses) and if you do find yourself in there and know when your account was created, drop a note in the comments below and we might be able to crowd source a more accurate picture of when this event occurred.
Update: Since writing this piece, My Space have posted a blog about the incident which they've dated as having occurred before 11 June 2013.